Hot off the press…

Pertierra, L.R., F. Santos-Martin, K.A. Hughes, C. Avila, J.O. Caceres, D. De Filippo, S. Gonzalez, S. Grant, H. Lynch, C. Marina-Montes, A. Quesada, P. Tejedo, T. Tin, J. Benayas. 2021. Ecosystems services in Antarctica: Global assessment of the current state, future challenges and managing opportunities. Ecosystem Services 49: 101299.

Borowicz, A., H.J. Lynch, T. Estro, C. Foley, B. Goncalves, K. Herman, S.K. Adamczak, and L. Thorne. 2021. Social sensors for wildlife: Ecological opportunities in the era of camera ubiquity. Frontiers in Marine Science 8: 385.

Schrimpf, M., and H.J. Lynch. 2021. The role of wind fetch in structuring Antarctic seabird breeding occupancy. Ibis 163(2): 695-705.

Handley, J., M.-M. Rouyer, L. Pearmain, V. Warwick-Evans, K. Teschke, J. Hinke, H. Lynch, L. Emmerson, C. Southwell, G. Griffith, A. Franco, P. Trathan, M. P. Dias. 2021. Marine Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas for penguins in Antarctica, proxies for conservation action. Frontiers in Marine Science 7: 1190.

Recent Publications

Strycker, N., A. Borowicz, M. Wethington, S. Forrest, V. Shah, Y. Liu, H. Singh, H. J. Lynch. 2020. Fifty-year change in penguin abundance on Elephant Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica: Results of the 2019-20 census. In press at Polar Biology. (Link)

Strycker, N., M. Wethington, A. Borowicz, S. Forrest, C. Witharana, T. Hart, H. J. Lynch. 2020. A global population assessment of the Chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarctica). Scientific Reports 10: 19474. (Link)

Herman, R., A. Borowicz, M. Lynch, P. Trathan, and H.J. Lynch. 2020. Update on the global abundance and distribution of Gentoo Penguins (Pygoscelis papua). Polar Biology 43: 1947-1956.

Borowicz, A., S. Forrest, N. Strycker, M. Wethington, H. J. Lynch. 2020. Presence of king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) on Elephant Island provides further evidence of range expansion. Polar Biology 43: 2117-2120.

Youngflesh, C., F.M. Jones, H.J. Lynch, J. Arthur, Z. Rockaiova, H. Torsey, and T. Hart. 2020. Large-scale assessment of intra- and inter-annual breeding success using a remote camera network. In press in Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation. (Link)

Iles, D.A., H.J. Lynch, R. Ji, C. Barbraud, K. Delord, and S. Jenouvrier. 2020. Sea ice predicts long-term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: results from a range-wide multi-scale analysis. In press in Global Change Biology. (Link)

Foley, C.M., W.F. Fagan, and H.J. Lynch. 2020. Correcting for within-season demographic turnover to estimate the island-wide population of King Penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) on South Georgia. Polar Biology 43: 251-262.

Goncalves, B., B. Spitzbart, and H.J. Lynch. 2020. SealNet: A fully-automated pack-ice seal detection pipeline for sub-meter satellite imagery. Remote Sensing of Environment 239: 111617 (Link).

Schrimpf, M.B., C. Che-Castaldo, and Lynch, H.J. 2019. Regional breeding bird assessment of the Antarctic Peninsula. Polar Biology 43: 111-122. (Link)

Borowicz, A., H. Le, G. Humphries, G. Nehls, C. Höschle, V. Kosarev, and H.J. Lynch. 2019. Aerial-trained deep learning networks for surveying cetaceans from satellite imagery. PLoS ONE 14(10): e0212532 (Link).

Foley, C.M. and H.J. Lynch. 2019. Estimating the pre-exploitation population size of a historically harvested marine mammal. Conservation Biology 34(1): 256-265.

McDowall, P., and H.J. Lynch. 2019. When the “selfish herd” becomes the “frozen herd”: Spatial dynamics and population persistence in a colonial seabird. Ecology 100(10): e02823. (Online first: Link).

Lynch, M.A., C. Youngflesh, N.H. Agha, M.A. Ottinger, and H.J. Lynch. 2019. Tourism and stress hormones measures in Gentoo Penguins on the Antarctic Peninsula. Polar Biology 42: 1299-1306 (Online first: Link).

Humphries, G.R.W., C. Che-Castaldo, P.J. Bull, G. Lipstein, A. Ravia, B. Carrion, T. Bolton, A. Ganguly, and H.J. Lynch. 2018. Predicting the future is hard and other lessons from a population time series data science competition. Ecological Informatics 48: 1-11.

Schwaller, M.R., H.J. Lynch, A. Tarroux, and B. Prehn. 2018. A continent-wide search for Antarctic petrel breeding sites with satellite remote sensing. Remote Sensing of Environment 210: 444-451.

Borowicz, A., P. McDowall, C. Youngflesh, T. Sayre-McCord, H. Clucas, R. Herman, S. Forrest, M. Rider, M. Schwaller, T. Hart, S. Jenouvrier, M.J. Polito, H. Singh, and H.J. Lynch. 2018. Multi-modal survey of Adélie penguin mega-colonies reveals the Danger Islands as a seabird hotspot. Scientific Reports 3926. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-22313-w (Link)

Youngflesh, C., S. Jenouvrier, J.T. Hinke, L. DuBois, J. St. Leger, W.Z. Trivelpiece, S.G. Trivelpiece, and H.J. Lynch. 2018. Rethinking “normal”: The role of stochasticity in the phenology of a synchronously breeding seabird. Journal of Animal Ecology 87: 682-690. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12790. (Online first: Link)

Foley, C.M., T. Hart, and H.J. Lynch. 2018. King Penguin populations increase on South Georgia but explanations remain elusive. Polar Biology 41: 1111-1122. doi: 10.1007/s00300-018-2271-z

Schrimpf, M., R. Naveen, H.J. Lynch. 2018. Population status of the Antarctic shag Phalacrocorax (atriceps) bransfieldensis. Antarctic Science 30(3): 151-159. (Online first: Link)

Youngflesh, C., and H.J. Lynch. 2017. Black-swan events: Population crashes or temporary emigration? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.1713621114. [Letter] (Link)

Che-Castaldo, C., S. Jenouvrier, C. Youngflesh, K. Shoemaker, G. Humphries, P. McDowall, L. Landrum, M. Holland, Y. Li, R. Ji, H.J. Lynch. 2017. Spatial aggregation reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise in pan-Antarctic analysis of Adélie penguin abundance. Nature Communications 8:832. (Link)

Lynch, M.A., and H.J. Lynch. 2017. Variation in the ecstatic display call of the Gentoo Penguin (Pygoscelis papua) across regional geographic scales. Auk 134(4): 894-902. (Link)

Chown, S.L., M.A. McGeoch, A. Terauds, C. Le Bohec, C. van Klaveren-Impagliazzo, J. Whittington, C. Brooks, S. Butchart, B.W.T Coetzee, B. Collen, P. Convey, K.J. Gaston, N. Gilbert, M. Gill, R. Höft, S. Johnston, M.C. Kennicutt II, H. Kriesell, Y. Le Maho, H.J. Lynch, M. Palomares, R. Puig-Marcó, and P. Stoett. 2017. Antarctica and the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020. PLoS Biology 15(3): e2001656. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.2001656.

Humphries G.R.W., C. Che-Castaldo, R. Naveen, M. Schwaller, P. McDowall, M Schrimpf, and H.J. Lynch. 2017. Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and tools for dynamic management and decision support. In Press at Polar Record.

Foley, C.M., M.A. Lynch, L.H. Thorne, and H.J. Lynch. 2017. Listing foreign species under the Endangered Species Act: A primer for conservation biologists. BioScience 67(7): 627-637. (Link)

McDowall, P., and H.J. Lynch. 2017. The importance of topographically correct null models for analyzing ecological point processes. Ecology 98(7): 1764-1770.

Youngflesh, C., S. Jenouvrier, Y. Li, R. Ji, D.G. Ainley, G. Ballard, C. Barbraud, K. Delord, K.M. Dugger, L.M. Emmerson, W.R. Fraser, J.T. Hinke, P.OB. Lyver, S. Olmastroni, C.J. Southwell, S.G. Trivelpiece, W.Z. Trivelpiece, H.J. Lynch. Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch. Ecology 98(4): 940-951.

McDowall, P., and H.J. Lynch. 2017. Ultra-Fine Scale Spatially-Integrated Mapping of Habitat and Occupancy Using Structure-From-Motion. PLoS ONE 12(1): e0166773. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0166773

Lynch, M., C. Foley, L.H. Thorne, and H.J. Lynch. 2016. Improving the use of biological data in Antarctic management. Antarctic Science 28(6): 425-431.

Cimino, M.A., H.J. Lynch, V.S. Saba, and M.J. Oliver. 2016. Asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change. Scientific Reports 6:28785.

Witharana, C., Lynch, H.J. 2016. An Object-Based Image Analysis Approach for Detecting Penguin Guano in very High Spatial Resolution Satellite Images. Remote Sensing 8(5): 375.

Bender, N.A., K. Crosbie, and H.J. Lynch. 2016. Patterns of tourism in the Antarctic Peninsula region: a 20-year analysis. Antarctic Science  doi:10.1017/S0954102016000031

Witharana, C., LaRue, M.A., and Lynch, H.J. 2016. Benchmarking of data fusion algorithms in support of earth observation based Antarctic wildlife monitoring. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 113: 124-143.

Hart, T., H.J. Lynch, and R. Naveen. 2015. Probe effects of krill fishing and climate. (Correspondence) Nature 523: 410.

Casanovas, P.V., R. Naveen, S. Forrest, J. Poncet, and H.J. Lynch. 2015. A comprehensive coastal seabird survey maps out the front lines of ecological change on the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Polar Biology 38: 927-940.

Trathan, P. N., P. García-Borboroglu, D. Boersma, C.-A. Bost, R. J. M. Crawford, G. T. Crossin, R. J. Cuthbert, P. Dann, L. S. Davis, S. De la Puente, U. Ellenberg, H.J. Lynch, T. Mattern, K. Pütz, P. J. Seddon, W. Trivelpiece, B. Wienecke. 2015. Assessing human impacts on marine systems, especially upon penguin species: how much do we care? Conservation Biology 29(1): 31-41.

LaRue, M., G. Kooyman, H.J. Lynch, and P. Fretwell. 2015. Emigration in emperor penguins: Implications for interpretation of long-term studies. Ecography 38: 114-120.

Lynch, H.J., J. Thorson, and O. Shelton. 2014. Dealing with under- and over-dispersed count data in life history, spatial, and community ecology. Ecology 95(11): 3173-3180.

Lynch, H.J., and M.R. Schwaller. 2014. Multi-sensor cross-validation of Adelie penguin detection and abundance estimation. PLoS ONE 9(11): e113301.

Lynch, H.J., and M.A. LaRue. 2014. First global survey of Adelie penguin populations. The Auk 131(4): 457-466.

Casanovas, P.V., H. J. Lynch, W.F. Fagan. 2014. Using citizen science to estimate lichen diversity. Biological Conservation 171: 1-8.

LaRue, M.A., H. J. Lynch, P. Lyver, K. Barton, D.G. Ainley, A.M. Pollard, G. Ballard. 2014. Establishing a method to estimate Adelie penguin populations using remotely-sensed imagery. Polar Biology 37:507-517.

Zipkin, E.F., J.T. Thorson, K. See, H. J. Lynch, E.H.C. Grant, Y. Kanno, R.B. Chandler, B.H. Letcher, J.A. Royle. 2014. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals. Ecology 95:22-29.

Lynch, H.J., M. Rhainds, J. Calabrese, S. Cantrell, C. Cosner, and W.F. Fagan. 2014. How climate extremes – not means – define a species’ geographic range boundary via a demographic tipping point. Ecological Monographs 84:131-149.

Lynch, H.J., R. Naveen, P.V. Casanovas. 2013. Antarctic Site Inventory breeding bird survey data 1994/95-2012/13. Ecology 94(11): 2653.

Fagan, W.F., Y. Pearson, E.A. Larsen, H.J. Lynch, J. Turner, H. Staver, A. Noble, S. Bewick, and E.E. Goldberg. 2013. Phylogenetic comparative analysis of the maximum per capita rate of population growth. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 280: 20130523.

Casanovas, P., H.J. Lynch, R. Naveen, and W.F. Fagan. 2013. Understanding lichen diversity on the Antarctic Peninsula using parataxonomic units as a surrogate for species richness. Ecology (Data Paper) 94(9): 2110-2110.

Brasso, R.L., M.J. Polito, H.J. Lynch, R. Naveen, and S.D. Emslie. 2012. Penguin eggshells reflect homogeneity of mercury in the marine food web surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula. Total Science of the Environment 439: 165-171.

Naveen, R.*, H. J. Lynch*, S. Forrest, T. Mueller, and M. Polito. 2012. First, complete site-wide penguin survey at Deception Island, Antarctica reveals massive declines consistent with climate change. Polar Biology 35(12): 1879-1888. [* joint first authors]

Lynch, H.J., R. Naveen, P.N. Trathan and W.F. Fagan. 2012. Spatially integrated assessment reveals widespread changes in penguin populations on the Antarctic Peninsula. Ecology 93(6): 1367-1377.

Lynch, H.J., N. Ratcliffe, J. Passmore, E. Foster, P.N. Trathan. 2012. Sensitivity analysis identifies high influence sites for estimates of penguin krill consumption on the Antarctic Peninsula. Antarctic Science 25(1): 19-23..

Rhainds, M., J. Régnière, H.J. Lynch, and W.F. Fagan. 2012. Overwintering survival of bagworms, Thyridopteryx ephemeraeformis Haworth (Lepidoptera: Psychidae): influence of temperature and egg cluster weight. In press at The Canadian Entomologist.

Grant, E.H.C., H.J. Lynch, R. Muneepeerakul, M. Arunachalam, I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, and W.F. Fagan. 2012. Interbasin water transfer, riverine connectivity, and spatial controls on fish biodiversity. PLoS ONE 7(3): e34170.

Casanovas, P., H.J. Lynch, and W.F. Fagan. 2012. Multi-scale patterns of lichen and moss richness along the Antarctic Peninsula. Ecography 35: 001-011.

Lynch, H.J., R. White, A.D. Black, and R. Naveen. 2012. Detection, differentiation, and abundance estimation of penguin species by high-resolution satellite imagery. Polar Biology 35: 963-968.

Naveen, R. and H.J. Lynch. 2011. Antarctic Peninsula Compendium, 3rd Edition. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Available on Amazon here.

Lynch, H.J., W.F. Fagan, R. Naveen, S.G. Trivelpiece, and W.Z. Trivelpiece. 2011. Differential advancement of breeding phenology in response to climate may alter staggered breeding among sympatric pygoscelid penguins. In press at Marine Ecology Progress Series.

Lynch, H.J., E.H.C. Grant, R. Muneepeerakul, M. Arunachalam, I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, and W.F. Fagan. 2011. How restructuring river connectivity changes freshwater fish biodiversity and biogeography.  Water Resources Research 47(5): W05531.

Polito, M.J., H.J. Lynch, R. Naveen, and S. Emslie. 2011. Stable isotopes reveal regional heterogeneity in the pre-breeding distribution and diets of sympatrically breeding Pygoscelis spp. penguins. Marine Ecology Progress Series 421: 265-277.

Lynch, H.J., S. Zeigler, L. Wells, J.D. Ballou, W.F. Fagan. 2010. Drivers of survivorship shape and its use in the estimation of maximum population growth rates. Ecological Applications 20: 2334-2345.

Lynch, H.J., K. Crosbie, W.F. Fagan, R. Naveen. 2010. Spatial patterns of tour ship traffic in the Antarctic Peninsula region. Antarctic Science 22(2): 123-130.

Lynch, H.J., W.F. Fagan, and R. Naveen. 2010. Population trends and reproductive success at a frequently visited penguin colony on the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Polar Biology 33(4): 493-503.

Goldberg, E., H.J. Lynch, M. Neubert, W.F. Fagan. 2010. Life history strategies and their impact on population growth rates in a disturbed dendritic network.. Theoretical Ecology 3(3): 137-152.

Fagan, W.F., H.J. Lynch, and B. Noon. 2010. Pitfalls and challenges of estimating population growth rate from empirical data: consequences for allometric scaling relations. Oikos 119(3): 455-464.

Bertuzzo, E., R. Muneepeerakul, H.J. Lynch, W.F. Fagan, I. Rodriguez-Iturbe , and A. Rinaldo. 2009. Neutral macroecology, geographic ranges and freshwater fish biodiversity in river basins. Water Resources Research 45: W11420.

Chesalin, M. R. Naveen, H. Lynch, I. Bullock, M. Rider, A. Miller, S. Forrest, R. Dagit, I. Dykyy, and V. Timofeyev. 2009. Long-term changes in populations of seabirds on Petermann Island and surrounding islands in Graham Land, Antarctic Peninsula. Marine Ecological Journal VIII(3): 5-13.

Lynch, H.J. and W.F. Fagan. 2009. Survivorship curves and their impact on the estimation of maximum population growth rates. Ecology 90(4): 1116-1124.

Lynch, H.J., W.F. Fagan, R. Naveen, S.G. Trivelpiece, and W.Z. Trivelpiece. 2009. Timing of clutch initiation in Pygoscelis penguins on the Antarctic Peninsula: Towards an improved understanding of off-peak census correction factors CCAMLR Science 16:149-165.

Lynch, H.J., R. Naveen, and W.F. Fagan. 2008. Censuses of Penguins, Blue-Eyed Shags, and Southern Giant Petrel Populations in the Antarctic Peninsula, 2001-2007. Marine Ornithology 36: 83-97.